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The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University in September 2025 was more than a tragic loss—it was a stark warning of America’s descent into dangerous political violence. As an African journalist covering conflicts across the Global South for over two decades, I recognize warning signs that precede societal breakdown. The patterns emerging in America today bear disturbing similarities to pre-conflict societies I witnessed in West Africa.
The Shifting Landscape of Violence
Events from 2024 and 2025 reveal critical evolution in American political violence. While right-wing extremism historically dominated domestic terrorism statistics, responsible for most politically motivated fatalities since 2001, per Princeton’s Bridging Divides Initiative, we now witness dangerous reciprocal radicalization. The notable increase in left-wing violence, including attacks on Immigration and Customs Enforcement personnel and riots framed as “criminal justice” struggles, represents an alarming front.
This tit-for-tat dynamic mirrors patterns I observed during early conflict stages in Sierra Leone and Côte d’Ivoire. Charlie Kirk’s assassination, followed by Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hottman’s murder alongside her husband, illustrates this deadly symmetry. Each violent act becomes justification for the next escalation, creating spirals increasingly difficult to break. The media ecosystem amplifies this dangerous dynamic. Hyper-partisan cable news and social media platforms transform tragedies into spectacles of blame and outrage, turning political opponents into existential enemies rather than fellow citizens with differing views.
This is precisely how democratic discourse dies — not through sudden collapse, but gradual erosion of shared norms and mutual respect.
Root Causes and International Parallels
Several factors fuel America’s descent toward political violence, each familiar from my reporting in fragile states. The crisis of institutional legitimacy stands paramount. Significant portions of both political left and right have lost faith in core American institutions — government, media, electoral processes, judiciary. This creates dangerous vacuums easily filled by extremist ideologies offering simple, violent solutions to complex problems.
The weaponization of rhetoric by political leaders has become increasingly reckless, per PBS News. When those at commanding heights of leadership engage in incendiary speech, they provide tacit permission for followers to escalate actions. Constant portrayal of political opponents as existential threats rather than fellow Americans constitutes direct incitement to violence. This pattern disturbingly echoes what I observed in Rwanda before the 1994 genocide, where radio broadcasts systematically dehumanized targeted groups.
The chilling effect on governance represents another critical dimension. The documented 10% increase in threats against public officials in 2024, per Princeton, with women and minorities disproportionately targeted, corrodes democratic participation. When elected representatives live in fear, they avoid controversial issues or abandon public service entirely. This creates vicious cycles where extreme voices dominate while space for moderation shrinks.
Perhaps most dangerous is persistent American exceptionalism — the belief that America is immune to democratic decay affecting other nations. This blindness prevents recognition of flashing warning signs. History’s lessons from the Balkans to Rwanda, Lebanon to Myanmar, are unambiguous: no nation, regardless of democratic traditions, is immune to political violence when conditions converge perfectly.
Sobering Official Assessments
The Department of Homeland Security’s 2025 assessment confirms these concerns, noting Domestic Violent Extremists have been emboldened by inflammatory rhetoric surrounding immigration. This mirrors how discourse around identity has fueled conflicts in other societies. Targeting specific groups, spreading conspiracy theories, and normalizing violence as political tools are familiar precursors to larger-scale conflict.
Attempted assassinations of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and former President Donald Trump, alongside successful attacks on political figures, demonstrate that no level of American leadership is immune. The escalation from threats to actual violence represents crossing the Rubicon that other societies found difficult to reverse.
Learning from Global Experience
My reporting across conflict zones taught me political violence follows predictable patterns. It begins with opponent dehumanization, escalates through inflammatory rhetoric, and culminates in violent acts each side uses to justify further escalation. America is well advanced along this trajectory.
Countries successfully pulling back from this brink share common characteristics: leadership willing to de-escalate rhetoric, institutions maintaining cross-political legitimacy, and civil society bridging differences. America possesses these elements but rapidly squanders them.
A Choice at the Precipice
Charlie Kirk’s assassination should serve as a wake-up call, not merely another data point in America’s descent. The nation stands at a precipice where choices between democratic renewal and continued deterioration will define its future. This requires more than superficial civility calls — it demands fundamental change in how Americans engage with political difference. Leaders must prioritize country over party, speaking uncomfortable truths to supporters while modeling respectful discourse. Citizens must reject seductive politics of fear and division, seeking diverse information sources and engaging opponents as democratic partners rather than enemies.
With more than 250 years of democratic experience, America possesses institutional memory to step back from this precipice. The question defining the nation’s future is whether it has the collective will to use that wisdom.